What Early Voting Data Is Showing About the Midterm Elections

With a week left before the November 3 midterms, early voting has already drawn nearly 33 million ballots, split about evenly between in-person and mail voting, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab. Measured against the roughly 122 million people who voted in 2022, that is over one-fourth of the earlier turnout. Michael McDonald, the political scientist who runs the lab, told Time the numbers cannot forecast a winner but can show relative engagement, particularly when patterns hold across several days and states.

In the 27 states that register voters by party, Democrats account for about 45% of early ballots, Republicans 31%, and unaffiliated voters 24%. That reflects registration, not choices on the ballot. McDonald expects Democrats to lead early and Republicans to gain on Election Day, noting that a Pew survey after the last cycle found nearly 40% of Republicans voted in person on Election Day versus 28% of Democrats.

Polls point to a Democratic enthusiasm edge, including a PBS News/NPR/Marist survey showing likely voters favoring Democratic House candidates 52% to 44%.

Summarized by PolitiKool from Time’s reporting. Read the full story at Time →