What polling predicts will happen at the US midterm elections

Polling before the November 3 midterms points to a probable Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives, with control of the Senate much closer. An Economist/YouGov survey taken October 10-12 had Democrats ahead of Republicans 46% to 39% for House races and 45% to 40% for the Senate. White voters were the main group where Republicans held an edge, according to The Independent.

Voters are downbeat: 66% say the country is on the wrong track and 70% say things feel out of control. Only 28% consider President Donald Trump effective and 23% honest, and 67% disapprove of his handling of inflation, which, together with the economy, was the top concern for 34%.

Democrats and their independent allies Bernie Sanders and Angus King hold 47 Senate seats and must win at least four states to take control, since Vice President J.D. Vance would break a 50-50 tie. NBC rates North Carolina and Maine as likely Democratic gains, and Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as toss-ups. Paul Whiteley of the University of Essex notes that the president's party normally loses seats; Republicans lost a net 39 House seats in 2018.

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Independent’s reporting. Read the full story at The Independent →