Former Obama Adviser Dan Pfeiffer Warns Polls Could Again Overstate Republicans

Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer, a Pod Save America host, told listeners that the 2026 midterm polls could be underestimating Democrats rather than overestimating them. He pointed to New Jersey last year, where the polls missed in Republicans' favor by roughly 10 points.

With 25 days to go, he was answering a fear that has spread among Democrats: that strong numbers for the party are hiding Trump voters who no longer pick up the phone. Fellow host Jon Favreau raised that worry in the episode released Friday, calling it the possibility "that I know is keeping all of us up at night."

Dan Pfeiffer Points to New Jersey's 2025 Polling Miss

Pfeiffer, who says his own habit is to "emotionally prepare for the worst and hope for the best," first acknowledged that the argument cut against his usual pessimism.

"This is very against brand. So I just wanna stipulate that. I'm not saying this is true," he said. "As a mere factual and statistical possibility, it is also possible that the polls are wrong in the other direction."

"It is not a guarantee," he added.

Then he made the case. "In 2025, particularly in New Jersey, a state that swung far to the right in 2024, the polls dramatically overestimated the Republican share of the vote," Pfeiffer said. He argued that "some of the statistical methods being used to get more Trump voters in the polls may be giving a false impression of what MAGA turnout will be," and concluded that "they were pro-Republican in 2025, they could be pro-Republican this time again."

What the 2025 Governor Polls Showed

The record backs him up. In the final 270toWin average of nine polls, Democrat Mikie Sherrill led Republican Jack Ciattarelli 50.1 percent to 45.7 percent, a margin of 4.4 points. Several late surveys showed an even tighter race: Emerson College had Sherrill up 2 points and AtlasIntel had her up 1.

Sherrill won by about 14 points, according to certified results from New Jersey's Division of Elections. That is about 10 points beyond the final average.

The Virginia miss was smaller but went the same way. Democrat Abigail Spanberger led Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 10.2 points in the final 270toWin average. She won by about 15 points, according to VPM.

The Midterm Numbers Democrats Are Nervous About

The current numbers are already good for Democrats. Favreau said, "I think Nate Silver has it at nine points as of this recording, which is a new high," referring to the generic congressional ballot. PolitiKool's polling average puts Democrats ahead 48.4 percent to 40.3 percent, a margin of 8.1 points. President Donald Trump's approval stands at 37.4 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

Pfeiffer also cited new Navigator Research data. In a report released this week, the Democratic-aligned firm found "one-in-four who voted for Trump in 2024 now regret their vote." Pfeiffer said such voters had either "turned on him hard" or had "stopped paying attention."

Republicans have their own doubts about the polls. Fox News host Sean Hannity said this week he lacks "confidence" in a GOP win and pointed to a Republican pollster's finding that surveys overstate Democrats. The same report noted that polling bias in midterm years has historically been more modest than in presidential years, and the misses Pfeiffer cited came in the 2025 off-year races, which do not necessarily carry over to a midterm.

Errors Could Cancel Out

Favreau did not fully sign on. He said "it could all even each other out because they could be missing some Republicans who don't wanna be answering pollsters," while also missing low-propensity Democrats.

"But we'll see, we'll see," he said.

Whether the 2025 pattern holds in a national midterm, with Senate races in states where Democrats' own campaigns are less optimistic, will not be known until Nov. 3.