Former Obama Speechwriter Jon Favreau Credits Chuck Schumer's Senate Picks

Former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau said Democratic Senate candidates in five red states are running well ahead of their party's national brand. He gave Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, whom he has often criticized, credit for recruiting them.

Favreau, a host of Pod Save America, was reacting on Tuesday's episode to a set of New York Times/Siena College polls. The Times/Siena results showed Democrats leading in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, tied in Kansas and trailing by one point in Iowa, five states President Donald Trump carried by 11 to 16 points in 2024.

"One thing that I think explains the polls or says good things about the Democratic recruitment effort is good, so voters in these polls still think the Democratic Party as a whole is too far left," Favreau said.

What the Times/Siena Senate Polls Show

The surveys were conducted from Sept. 21 to Oct. 1. They found Democrat James Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent. Former Representative Mary Peltola led Senator Dan Sullivan 50 percent to 43 percent in Alaska, and former Senator Sherrod Brown led Senator Jon Husted 49 percent to 46 percent in Ohio. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton was tied with Senator Roger Marshall at 45 percent, and in Iowa, Representative Ashley Hinson led Josh Turek 48 percent to 47 percent.

The Ohio, Iowa and Kansas margins are within the polls' margins of error, WLOS reported.

PolitiKool's averages show tighter races in Texas and Alaska, a wider Brown lead in Ohio, and narrow Democratic leads in Iowa and Kansas. Talarico leads by 3.6 points in PolitiKool's Texas Senate average, Peltola by 3.9 in PolitiKool's Alaska Senate average and Brown by 4.3 in PolitiKool's Ohio Senate average. Turek leads by 1.7 in PolitiKool's Iowa Senate average, and Hamilton leads by 0.8 in PolitiKool's Kansas Senate average.

Favreau Says Candidates Are Outrunning the Party

"52% think that the Democratic Party is too far left in these polls, which is not entirely unsurprising 'cause they're red states," he said. "Only 35% say their actual Democratic Senate candidate is too far left."

The candidates, he said, are "outrunning the National Party brand."

The Times/Siena reporting points the same way. In four of the five states, more voters called the Republican "too far to the right" than called the Democrat "too far to the left," the Denver Gazette reported. In Texas, 47 percent called Paxton "too far to the right," while 40 percent called Talarico "too far to the left."

Favreau then made the point that put him at odds with parts of his own side. "For all that we have maligned, Chuck Schumer, for Maine, for some of the other ones," he said, Peltola, Brown and North Carolina's Roy Cooper "were good picks, those were good picks."

"It is important to maybe get candidates that at least appear to voters not as far left as the National Party, for all the talk online otherwise," he added.

Jon Lovett, a former Obama speechwriter and Favreau's co-host, conceded that "the people think the party is too far to left, but people respond by doing politics and they make their own argument and they make their case."

The Recruiting Record, and Maine

Schumer pointed to his recruits in January, telling Semafor that Democrats were "more likely to win than not in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska. We couldn't have better candidates." Cooper leads by 9.8 points in PolitiKool's North Carolina Senate average.

Maine has been bumpier. Schumer's pick there, Governor Janet Mills, dropped out of the Senate primary, citing a lack of money, PBS NewsHour reported. Graham Platner went on to win the nomination but exited the race after a sexual assault allegation that he denies. Former state Senate President Troy Jackson replaced the sitting nominee at a party convention in Bangor, according to PBS. Jackson became the nominee in July, the Portland Press Herald reported.

Tommy Vietor, a former Obama spokesman and co-host, said Jackson "has struggled a lot since they made the switch from Plattner." He added: "I bet they hate the process through which he became the nominee in Maine."

The Maine polling is mixed. A Times/Siena poll released Sept. 24 had Senator Susan Collins ahead of Jackson 49 percent to 46 percent, while a UMass Lowell/YouGov poll had Jackson up five, the Press Herald reported.

What To Watch For Next

The hosts did not treat the polls as settled. "I'm worried about the potential response bias, I'm worried about Democrats answering polls," Vietor said.

Favreau noted that only Talarico and Peltola reached 50 percent. "If it's only the people who hit 50 and 51 who end up winning," he said, "we would miss the Senate by about a point."