Former Obama Spokesman Calls Alaska Spoiler Candidate Effort 'Ham-Handed'

Tommy Vietor, a Pod Save America host and former Obama White House spokesman, faulted his own side on Sunday's episode. He called the reported Democratic effort to put a second Dan Sullivan on Alaska's Senate ballot "so goddamn ham-handed," two days before an election in which the state could help decide control of the Senate.

His target was the recruitment and the fallout around it, not Democratic nominee Mary Peltola. He and his guest, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, both doubted that the episode would change the result.

Tommy Vietor on the Alaska 'Dan Sullivan' Effort

The conversation was recorded Friday. Vietor told Enten he had been "feeling bullish about Alaska" before the New York Times story ran.

"But the effort to recruit this guy seems so goddamn ham-handed," Vietor said. "And then you have this former Mary Peltola campaign manager who decided to go unburden herself to the New York Times and then try to take it all back."

He also dismissed the former manager's plans for a wrongful termination suit: "seems like you were rightly terminated if you were going to unburden yourself about all that."

"Anyway, it was just so stupid and messy and foolish," Vietor said. "And I was like, we don't need to do this, guys. I feel like this is obviously not helping her win right now."

Enten agreed. "If I'm a Democrat, I'm asking myself, what are we doing?" he said.

What the New York Times Reported

The Times report, published Wednesday, described what it called secret efforts by the Peltola campaign, its lawyers and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) to recruit Dan J. Sullivan of Petersburg and other challengers in order to draw votes away from Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan, Alaska Public Media reported.

Much of the account came from Elisa Rios, the campaign manager Peltola fired in August. Rios told the Times that Peltola was not directly involved but was "definitely aware." As publication neared, Rios wrote, "I am not willing to be a source for any story in any capacity," CNBC reported. The Times published anyway.

Peltola has denied any role. "I knew nothing about any other candidates on the ballot except for me and the incumbent," she said at a campaign event, NBC News reported. The DSCC said it "is not involved with Dan J. Sullivan."

The fallout has spread. The Justice Department has issued at least three dozen subpoenas and preservation requests, and Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy ordered state police to investigate, NBC News reported. President Donald Trump said of Peltola and her campaign, "I think they should be prosecuted," PBS NewsHour reported. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said a loss to a "fake Dan Sullivan" would need fixing.

Vietor is not the only Democratic-leaning host to object. Fox News' Jessica Tarlov called the reported ploy "icky".

Ranked-Choice Voting Limits the Damage

Vietor said Alaska's voting system makes the scheme less potent than it sounds. Ranked-choice voting, he said, "means it seems less likely that having another Dan Sullivan on the ballot is gonna actually impact the vote." Under the system, Alaska Public Media noted, the vote counts for the candidate with the most votes.

Enten put the cost at a point or two. "My baseline is maybe you take a point or two off of Peltola, but I don't know if that's the right baseline or not. And even if it is, it might not be enough to change the race," he said.

Peltola's Polling Lead Against Alaska's History

Vietor said Peltola was "up nearly four points in the polling average." PolitiKool's polling average puts her at 47.6 percent to Sullivan's 44.2 percent, a 3.4-point lead.

The state's record is a harder sell. "Alaska has elected one Democratic senator in the 21st century, and that was Mark Begich in 2008," Enten said. That year, Begich's opponent, Republican Senator Ted Stevens, had just been convicted in a federal trial.

"This, to me, is a tough state to win if you're a Democrat," Enten said.

What to Watch on Election Night

Alaska could also be the last race to finish. Enten said a slow count there, with ranked-choice tabulation, is one of the few things likely to push a decisive result past the early hours of Wednesday.

With the Senate rated a toss-up on PolitiKool's Senate map, whether a 1-to-2-point hit matters may depend on how close the race turns out to be.