Former Obama Speechwriter Sees Polling Blind Spot in Elon Musk's Midterm Cash

Former Obama speechwriter Jon Lovett said on Tuesday that Elon Musk's turnout spending is one place Democrats could find reason to worry three weeks before the midterms. He suggested that the polls showing Democrats ahead may be missing Republicans who rarely vote.

Lovett, a co-host of Pod Save America, was reacting to a New York Times report that Musk has given more than $276 million to Republican groups since July. That makes the billionaire the largest known donor of the 2026 cycle.

His next line was the warning.

"Maybe that's part of the theory. So that's a bit alarming," he added. He described it as a worry and did not predict a result. He also wondered how much money would be left in Donald Trump's own PAC once the election is over.

Where Elon Musk's Midterm Money Went

Lovett's figure was close to the reported one. Musk has given more than $76 million since July to America PAC, the super PAC he founded in 2024, Time reported. The money is not earmarked solely for door-knocking. The Times described the group as building "a sprawling canvassing program to try to turn out hard-to-reach Republican voters," Common Dreams noted.

The biggest share, $158 million, went to the Senate Leadership Fund, the main GOP Senate super PAC. Time described that gift as one of the largest known political donations in history.

Including his earlier donations, Musk's disclosed giving for the 2025-26 cycle reaches $366 million. That is more than the at least $288 million he spent in 2024, when America PAC became one of the most prominent get-out-the-vote efforts, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Election Commission filings reported by The Boston Globe.

The disclosed figures leave out some of his money. Musk has also given through groups that are not required to name their donors, so his full total could be higher.

Why Polls and Low-Propensity Voters Matter

The problem Lovett described has happened before. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found that 2020 national presidential polls had their largest error in 40 years, overstating Joe Biden's margin over Trump by an average of 3.9 points. The task force report said it could not definitively identify the cause.

For now, the numbers favor Democrats. They lead by 7.8 points in PolitiKool's polling average of the generic congressional ballot. Trump's approval stands at 37.8 percent in PolitiKool's polling average. On Friday, the Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats.

The Senate is less settled. PolitiKool's Senate tracker rates control a toss-up, with seven races in that column.

Trump's super PAC says it is focusing its final Senate spending on Ohio, Iowa and Alaska. In all three, Democrats lead narrowly in PolitiKool's averages: Sherrod Brown by 4.2 points in Ohio, Josh Turek by 1.3 in Iowa and Mary Peltola by 4.6 in Alaska. Those are the kinds of margins a turnout operation is built to close.

What Comes Next

Lovett also wondered whether Republican megadonors will lose their appetite for giving after this cycle, as he said Democratic billionaires did after feeling burned by campaign spending that seemed to bring no return.

The election is November 3. If America PAC's canvassers find voters the polls missed, it will show up in turnout, not in the toplines published between now and then.