Jessica Tarlov Wouldn't Put an Iran 'October Surprise' Past Donald Trump

Jessica Tarlov, the Fox News co-host, said a report that the White House is weighing new strikes on Iran before the midterm elections is "a very big deal." She added that she would not put a politically timed attack past the Trump administration.

She made the remarks on Raging Moderates, which she co-hosts with NYU marketing professor Scott Galloway. The election is less than four weeks away, and the war that began February 28 has driven up gas prices and weighed on Donald Trump's standing.

"But I do think this reporting from the Atlantic so far and I'm sure it will become more widespread that the Trump administration is considering military action in Iran, you know, very soon as their October surprise to try to get us on war footing mode is a very big deal," Tarlov said.

"And I certainly wouldn't put it past them," she added.

What The Atlantic Reported on Iran Strikes

The Atlantic reported this week that the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare options for new strikes on Iran that could be carried out before the November 3 election. The magazine cited two administration officials, the Jerusalem Post reported. U.S. Central Command is drawing up the options, and the scope and targets are still being discussed.

No final decision has been made. A White House official said Trump "has all options available at any time." Some advisers would rather wait until after the vote because they fear renewed fighting could hurt Republican candidates, the Jerusalem Post reported. Officials tied the planning to Trump's wish to bring down gas prices, the Jerusalem Post reported. The move is also tied to Trump's wish to project progress in the war, Haaretz reported.

Tarlov treated the reported planning as a politically motivated "October surprise" meant to put the country on "war footing mode," while noting that the reporting so far came from The Atlantic. She said the motive was the midterms. In her view, the administration "is about to get very desperate as they see writing on the wall for at the very least, you know, a good night for Democrats in the house, but potentially, you know, even in the Senate."

Democrats lead by 8.1 points in PolitiKool's polling average of the generic congressional ballot. Trump's approval rating stands at 37.4 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

Scott Galloway Asks What Could Go Right

Galloway took a different view. He said Americans may be too quick to assume the war will keep going badly.

He also hedged: "But anyways, this stuff is really hard to predict."

The latest shipping data is mixed. Gulf producers have shifted much of their exports to pipelines and ports on the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea. But just seven commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, the fewest since July 23. Before the war, about 125 large commercial ships made the crossing each day, Baird Maritime reported. Attacks on tankers last week hit their highest weekly count of the war. (Sean Hannity and an Obama administration official clashed over the same Hormuz figures last week.)

Jessica Tarlov Points to Tankers and Gas Prices

Tarlov's reply centered on cost. "The cost of this is absolutely crippling," she said, citing what it takes to insure a tanker. "And now the amount of attacks on tankers getting through is going up and up and up."

Pump prices reflect that strain. The national average for regular gasoline was $2.94 a gallon in the week before the war, according to the Energy Information Administration. It peaked at $4.50 in May, fell to about $3.78 by early July, and climbed again in September. It now sits at $4.35 on PolitiKool's gas price tracker, roughly 48 percent above the pre-war level. AAA says prices are at record highs for this time of year.

Polls Show the Iran War Is Unpopular

Tarlov argued that voters are the real constraint on the administration. "Americans are clearly not in the business of tolerating this and are going to vote accordingly," she said. She added that Tehran knows the calendar too: "Iran wants to run out the clock on it as much as they can."

The polling supports her on that point. A Pew Research Center survey of 5,062 adults, conducted September 28 to October 4, found that 65 percent disapprove of Trump's handling of the military action in Iran and 33 percent approve. In March, 37 percent approved. Republican approval fell from 69 percent to 63 percent over the same period.

What Happens Next

The Pentagon's options remain options, and the White House has not said whether it will use them before November 3. If it strikes, voters will have to judge in a matter of weeks whether it was the win Galloway imagined or the gamble Tarlov fears.