Megyn Kelly Predicts Mike Rogers Will Lose Michigan Senate Race Over Israel

Megyn Kelly predicted on Thursday that Republican Mike Rogers will lose Michigan's Senate race to Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. She said the GOP's central attack on El-Sayed, tying him to the Muslim Brotherhood, is out of date.

The remarks came on The Megyn Kelly Show five days before the midterms. The conservative host was talking with Stu Burguiere, host of the prediction-market show Predictable With Stu, about which Senate underdogs were worth backing.

"All the stuff about El-Sayed being a member of the Muslim Brotherhood ... those are your grandfather's Fox News arguments," Kelly said. She added that the line is "just not going to work" because "it doesn't acknowledge the current mood even amongst young Republican voters."

Megyn Kelly Says Israel Will Decide Michigan

Kelly's argument was narrow. She did not attack Rogers himself. When Burguiere suggested she was not a fan, she replied, "I don't dislike him." Her case rested on one issue.

"In this environment, especially in Michigan, it's going to be decided by Israel," she said. "He's on the wrong side for that voting bloc, so he's going to lose."

She also hedged. "I could be wrong but can't wait to see how it turns out," Kelly said. She added that she was "not putting my money on Rogers" on Kalshi, the prediction market that sponsors her show.

The generational divide she described shows up in survey data. A Pew Research Center survey conducted March 23-29 found that 57 percent of Republicans ages 18 to 49 viewed Israel unfavorably, up from 50 percent a year earlier. Large majorities of Republicans 50 and older, by contrast, continue to view Israel positively, Pew found.

How Republicans Have Campaigned Against Abdul El-Sayed

The Muslim Brotherhood line has been a mainstay of the Republican campaign. After the primary, Rogers said El-Sayed "pledged his support to the Muslim Brotherhood," and the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee made similar claims. A Bridge Michigan fact-check found no evidence for it. The claim relied largely on a 2011 HuffPost column El-Sayed wrote about Egypt's revolution and a 2012 group letter defending Egypt's Mohamed Morsi.

The attacks continued into the fall. An October 2 Rogers ad featured a Persian American student, Iman Dashti, calling El-Sayed "a real threat to our national security and our values," Jewish Insider reported. President Donald Trump has also claimed that El-Sayed is a Brotherhood member, Fox 2 Detroit reported. El-Sayed has called the main piece of evidence, his half-sister's 2012 social media posts, "hearsay." Rogers has also been pressed on his own 2012 remarks urging outreach to "moderate" Brotherhood members.

Stu Burguiere Rated Mike Rogers Higher

Burguiere disagreed. He ranked Rogers second among the four underdogs, behind Maine Senator Susan Collins, and said "Rogers has a chance to win."

His case was "less about Rogers and more about the weakness of El-Sayed." He said that "if they had run a more moderate candidate there I don't think Rogers would ... have a chance," and named Representative Haley Stevens.

Kelly said Kalshi gave Rogers a 29 percent chance on Thursday. A Kalshi news post published October 17, 12 days earlier, had put him at 32 percent; the odds have moved since then.

What the Michigan Polls Show

Kelly pointed to a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday. It found El-Sayed leading Rogers 49 percent to 42 percent among 768 likely voters. The poll was conducted October 20-27.

Other recent polling shows a closer race. A Fox News poll conducted September 24-28 found El-Sayed ahead 50 percent to 49 percent among likely voters. PolitiKool's polling average has El-Sayed at 49 percent and Rogers at 44.5 percent.

Megyn Kelly on Ken Paxton and Texas

Kelly read the same CNN release for Texas. It showed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent. PolitiKool's polling average puts Talarico ahead by 5 points. Burguiere called the day's CNN polls "catastrophic for Republicans."

Kelly then cited a separate Texas Southern University poll, which had Talarico up by only 2 points while showing Republican Governor Greg Abbott ahead of his Democratic challenger by 3. She read that as possible ticket splitting: Texans like Abbott, she said, and "just do not like Ken Paxton." But she did not predict a Paxton loss. On Talarico winning the seat, she said, "I can't believe Texans would."

What To Watch

Election Day is Tuesday. The race will test whether the Brotherhood attacks move voters or whether, as Kelly predicts, Israel decides it.