Mike Johnson Insists Donald Trump Is 'No Drag at All' on House Republicans

House Speaker Mike Johnson says President Donald Trump is not hurting Republican candidates. He made the case even as the national polling average shows the president deeply underwater and Democrats ahead on the generic ballot.

In an interview with CNN's Manu Raju, the Louisiana Republican pointed to the size of Trump's crowds and dismissed the polls that show his party trailing.

"There's no drag at all. The president's out doing these events and he's having huge turnout, as you've seen, it's just like 2024," Johnson said. "That's what it feels like to me."

Mike Johnson Says the Polls Are Wrong

Johnson, who said he has "campaigned more than anybody this whole cycle," told Raju that surveys are missing Republican voters.

"I'm telling you the polls are wrong. They're inaccurate. They're under-representing Republicans, and many of the pollsters have admitted that," he said. He added that Republicans "aren't responding anymore. They're not participating."

As evidence, Johnson pointed to a CNN story. He said it showed that in 15 of the last 16 elections, Republicans were "underestimated in the October generic ballot by an average of four points." He did not say which pollsters had "admitted" anything.

The research he described comes from CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, who found that mid-October generic-ballot polls have underestimated Republicans in 15 of 16 cycles since 1994, the Daily Beast reported. That account reports the 15-of-16 finding but not the four-point average Johnson cited. It puts the largest miss this century at about 4.5 points.

Enten drew a different conclusion from the data. Even if that 4.5-point miss repeated, Enten said, Democrats would win the national House vote by 5.3 points, a margin large enough to overcome redistricting.

What the Polling Shows for Trump and the GOP

Trump's job approval stands at 37.6 percent, with 59.5 percent disapproving, according to PolitiKool's polling average. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 48.9 percent to 40.5 percent, an 8.4-point margin, in PolitiKool's polling average. That margin is wider than the four-point error Johnson cited.

Past midterms do not favor the president's party when the president is unpopular. Joe Biden's approval was 40 percent heading into the 2022 midterms, Gallup found, and Gallup put the average House loss for the party of a president below 50 percent approval at 37 seats since 1946. Democrats lost nine House seats in 2022.

The economy is a weak spot as well. Just 29.5 percent approve of Trump's handling of it, according to PolitiKool's polling average.

Manu Raju Presses Johnson on Deep-Red Districts

Raju challenged the speaker's optimism. "But then why are you guys battling in these deep red Trump districts?" he asked, noting that "there's some Trump plus 10, plus 14 districts where you guys are fighting right now."

Johnson said such seats are "difficult districts every cycle." He named Iowa Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and noted that Miller-Meeks "won her first race a few terms ago by six votes."

"We have battlegrounds around the country. Some are in deep blue states. Some are in red states," Johnson said. He added that redistricting had reshaped the map and "we have to win in the districts that are presented."

Do Rally Crowds Predict Midterm Turnout?

Trump's autumn schedule has leaned heavily on states he carried comfortably, and analysts have questioned the approach.

Ryan Mahoney, a Republican strategist, told ABC News in a report published September 29 that many solid-red districts and states are starting to suffer from Republican base voters who lack enthusiasm.

Matthew Dallek, a political historian, told ABC News that Trump can turn out irregular voters "at least when he's on the ballot." He added that unpopular presidents tend to stick to their base when they campaign in midterm years.

That caveat bears directly on Johnson's comparison to 2024. Trump was on the ballot in 2024. This year he is not. Sean Hannity warned his listeners this week that the Republican early vote is "not where it needs to be."

What Happens Next

Election Day is Tuesday. Republicans are defending a narrow House majority, and Johnson's hold on the gavel depends on keeping it.

Johnson is betting that the polls are missing his voters. By Enten's math, even a repeat of this century's largest polling miss would still leave Democrats ahead in the national House vote. If the averages hold, Republicans' spending in Trump-won districts may turn out to be the more telling sign of where the party stands.