Anti-trans ads are holding Texas Republicans in line. They may not win Ken Paxton the race.

Anti-transgender advertising is shoring up Republican turnout for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, but MS NOW reports it probably will not be enough to carry him to victory in the U.S. Senate race. Paxton and his allies have put an estimated $58 million into messaging on the topic, even though his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, has been in front in almost all public polling for months.

MS NOW convened four focus groups in Texas, including wavering right-leaning voters near Fort Worth and Hispanic Trump voters in Harris County. Many said Talarico's stance on transgender issues involving children weighs on their decision. Talarico said in a 2021 legislative hearing that there are "six really common biological sexes," then backed away from that on Fox News last month, though some voters called the retreat insincere. One voter, Susan, dislikes Paxton so much that she may skip the race or back the Libertarian. Another, Adrian, said he could consider Talarico if the Democrat spoke more about religion and the issue.

The network concludes that the ads may produce undervotes and protest votes rather than defections to Talarico, which would not rescue Paxton if Talarico keeps carrying independents by double digits.

Summarized by PolitiKool from MS NOW’s reporting. Read the full story at MS NOW →