CBS News poll: Talarico-Paxton Senate race is a Texas toss-up

Texas's U. S. Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is effectively deadlocked, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll, and the outcome now hinges on who actually shows up to vote. Talarico gains from a higher share of Democrats saying they will definitely cast ballots, but a rise in Republican participation could shift the picture in the final weeks.

Paxton relies on the state's Republican lean. Many of his supporters back him because he is the party's nominee, to oppose Talarico, or to stand with President Trump. Support for the Trump administration's deportation program runs higher in Texas than in CBS News' latest national survey, which helps Paxton. Nearly half of voters regard Talarico as very liberal, and those voters choose Paxton.

Talarico's strengths are the cost of living, which voters name as their top concern, and perceptions that he has the right character for the job. Among voters hurt by higher prices, he holds a sizable lead. He wins 5% of Republicans. Most Latino voters, a group that moved toward Trump in 2024, now favor him. He still needs heavy youth turnout. Governor Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa.

Summarized by PolitiKool from CBS News’s reporting. Read the full story at CBS News →