Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish

Texas, which has not elected a Democrat statewide in over three decades, may be heading for a very close Senate contest, according to a new Fox News poll released Wednesday. Among likely voters, Democratic state figure James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are level at 49% each. Paxton, backed by President Trump, defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary. A month earlier Talarico held a 51%-49% advantage, and Paxton's recovery came from conservatives, rural residents, suburban women and Cornyn's primary supporters.

Talarico benefits from firmer party unity: 98% of Democrats back him, while 90% of Republicans back Paxton, and nearly three in ten Republicans outside the MAGA camp cross over to Talarico. Democrats also report more intense interest in the election, 69% versus 61% for Republicans. Hispanic voters, who narrowly favored Trump in 2024, now prefer Talarico 64% to 34%.

Still, Texans lean toward Republican control of the Senate, 51% to 47%, and give Gov. Greg Abbott an edge for re-election. Republican pollster Daron Shaw said the outcome hinges on whether unhappy Republicans turn out and then vote for Paxton despite doubts.

Summarized by PolitiKool from Fox News’s reporting. Read the full story at Fox News →