Ken Paxton is deeply unpopular — but the GOP has a bigger problem

Republican Senate nominees in competitive races are broadly disliked by voters, and Ken Paxton of Texas is the weakest of them, according to a polling database FiftyPlusOne assembled for MS NOW columnist G. Elliott Morris. Combined with President Donald Trump's record-low midterm approval, the weak candidate images could cost the party control of Congress in November.

Averaging 12 polls, Paxton, who was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 and acquitted by the Texas Senate that September, sits at a net -14. His Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, is at +6.5, with 46.6% of Texans positive and 40.0% negative. The roughly 21-point difference is the widest of any Senate pairing nationally, and FiftyPlusOne's forecast now rates Texas as leaning Democratic even though Trump carried it by 14 points in 2024.

Elsewhere, Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley trails Roy Cooper by 10 points in North Carolina, and Ashley Hinson in Iowa averages -2. Democrats in Michigan, Maine and New Hampshire are also underwater, yet still rate better than their Republican rivals. Paxton told donors last month, Politico reported, that he cannot change anything because Washington runs his campaign.

Summarized by PolitiKool from MS NOW’s reporting. Read the full story at MS NOW →