These five midterm races may shock everyone on Election Day

With the 2026 midterms nearly here, The Independent reports that President Donald Trump's sagging popularity could produce upsets in several contests. It ties his decline to the war in Iran and a resulting cost-of-living crisis, saying he is losing Hispanic voters, young people and white voters without college degrees. Democrats are competitive in unlikely places: former Gov. Roy Cooper has held double-digit advantages in some North Carolina surveys, and Democrat James Talarico is roughly even with Trump's preferred Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, in Texas.

In Florida's governor race, Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds emerged from a rough primary and has scrubbed many Trump references from his website. He faces David Jolly, a former congressman who switched parties and now runs as a Democrat. In Kentucky's 6th District, which Trump carried by 15 points in 2024, Rep. Andy Barr is leaving to pursue Sen. Mitch McConnell's seat. NBC News reported that Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado removed Trump references from his campaign site, while Democrat Zach Dembo is running strongly. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent nothing there in 2024 but has now reserved $683,000 in advertising.

Oregon is the lone worry for Democrats. Gov. Tina Kotek beat Republican Christine Drazan by 3.4 points last time and they meet again. A DHM Research poll for a pro-business group, cited by Oregon Public Radio, found 59 percent of voters disapprove of Kotek and Drazan ahead by two points. Cook Political Report moved the race to "Lean Democratic."

Summarized by PolitiKool from The Independent’s reporting. Read the full story at The Independent →