Sean Hannity Cites Cook Report Poll: Democrats' Midterm Edge Down to 2 Points

Sean Hannity told listeners on Monday that a new Cook Political Report survey of competitive House districts shows Democrats holding only a two-point generic-ballot edge, and he credited Republican redistricting with shrinking what might otherwise have been a Democratic wave.

The claim tracks the survey's findings. Cook's Battleground District Project poll, conducted September 8-11 among 1,052 likely voters, found Democrats ahead 49 percent to 47 percent in the 37 districts the outlet rated as Toss Up, Lean Republican or Lean Democrat, according to the report's release. Hannity put the number of districts at 36; Cook's release says 37.

What Hannity Said About the Cook Political Report Survey

The Fox News host, who has spent weeks telling his radio audience to distrust public polling, framed the Cook numbers as a rare exception worth studying, with the election 43 days away by his count.

"I've told you not to trust the polls, but that doesn't mean I won't look at them for you and get a perspective," Hannity said. "I took a very specific look at the Cook political report battleground survey of 36 congressional districts rated as toss up lean GOP, lean Democrat. And what we're finding is the white house's redistricting efforts appear to have knocked down the size of any potential wave for the democratic party."

Hannity described Cook as "not exactly conservative" and said its two-point Democratic advantage "is nothing like what they had in 2018." He later added that the outlet is "not exactly Matt Towery, Robert Cahaly, John McLaughlin, or the pollsters" he trusts, all of whom have produced Republican-friendly results in past cycles.

"The polling right now shows they have a much smaller quote, lead heading into than what they had in 2018 dramatically," Hannity said.

Cook's Own Pollster Backs the Redistricting Point

Hannity's central argument has independent support from inside the survey. The poll was fielded jointly by the Democratic firm New River Strategies and the Republican firm GS Strategy Group, and GS Strategy Group's Greg Strimple addressed redistricting directly in Cook's release.

"The White House redistricting efforts have potentially knocked down the size of the wave in these swing districts, but it will require individual Republican candidates to separate themselves from the drag the economy is having on the Republican brand," Strimple said.

The second half of that sentence is the part Hannity did not relay. The same survey found President Donald Trump at 42 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval in the battleground districts, according to Cook's release.

Notably, Cook itself framed the result differently than Hannity did. The competitive districts in the September sample voted for Trump by an average of five points in 2024, so a two-point Democratic lead represents a seven-point swing toward Democrats. Cook's release said the poll finds Democrats "in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall."

How the Battleground Margin Compares to April and 2018

The two-point figure does mark a tightening within Cook's own series. The project's first survey, conducted April 7-14 in 36 competitive districts, found Democrats ahead 50 percent to 44 percent. Those districts had backed Trump by an average of two points in 2024, a smaller Republican tilt than the redrawn September map.

The 2018 comparison Hannity invoked is harder to make with Cook's data, because the Battleground District Project did not exist in that cycle. National polling offers a rough yardstick. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll taken September 16-19, 2018, gave Democrats a 12-point lead on the generic ballot, 52 percent to 40 percent, CNBC reported at the time. The final NBC/WSJ survey before that election put the Democratic edge at seven points, and Democrats went on to gain 41 House seats.

National numbers this year remain wider than the battleground figure. PolitiKool's polling average puts Democrats at 48.2 percent and Republicans at 41.5 percent on the generic ballot, a 6.7-point Democratic margin, as of Tuesday. A Quinnipiac University poll of 970 registered voters conducted September 3-6 found an 11-point Democratic lead, 49 percent to 38 percent.

The gap between national and battleground polling is expected. Cook's sample is limited to districts drawn to favor Republicans, so a national lead in the mid-single digits can coexist with a narrow margin in the seats that will decide House control.

Hannity Cites Quinnipiac Approval Number, Omits GOP Figure

Hannity also pointed to the same Quinnipiac poll to argue Republicans have an opening. "21% of voters approved the way Democrats in Congress are handling their job," he said. "That's an opportunity for Republicans."

The 21 percent figure matches Quinnipiac's release. The same survey found Republicans in Congress at 26 percent approval, and 46 percent of voters said Democrats are more in touch with the concerns of most Americans, compared with 35 percent for Republicans.

PolitiKool's polling average shows Trump at 38.8 percent approval and 58.2 percent disapproval nationally as of Tuesday. Both parties are underwater in PolitiKool's favorability tracking, with Democrats at 41.6 percent favorable and Republicans at 38.7 percent.

Socialism, Capitalism and the Turnout Message

Hannity spent much of the segment on the ideological questions in the Cook survey, which he tied to the Democratic Socialists of America. Cook's release reported that socialism drew a 32 percent favorable rating and 58 percent unfavorable in the battleground districts."That does give me cause to pause only 63%," Hannity said. "This is the greatest wealth creation system ever designed by man."

Even as he cited the numbers, Hannity returned to his standing warning that polls are designed to shape behavior. "The reason I'm saying don't pay attention to the polls is they want to have an impact on people's psychology," he said. "You don't get to sit this one out. It's an all hands on deck moment."

Cook's next battleground survey, and whether the September margin holds as the redrawn districts settle, will determine whether Hannity's reading of the map or Cook's own more bullish framing for Democrats proves closer to the mark on November 3.