JD Vance Blames 'Some Tinpot Dictator' for Gas Prices Months Into Iran War

Vice President JD Vance told undecided voters on Monday that he agrees gas prices are too high, then argued that prices "skyrocket every time some tinpot dictator decides to throw a tantrum."

Vance spoke at a rally at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport in Belgrade, Montana, where he campaigned for Republican Senate candidate Kurt Alme and House candidate Aaron Flint, eight days before the November 3 midterms. The remarks come while the U.S. is fighting a war with Iran that has kept oil prices high for months. Vance did not name Iran in the clip.

What JD Vance Said About Gas Prices

"You will hear many say that gas prices are too high, that there's still so much work to do on correcting the terrible Biden inflation," Vance said. "And I understand that. I agree with it."

He then cast the problem as a pattern. "Remember in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and gas prices skyrocketed? They skyrocketed by the way far higher than they are today," he said, adding that prices also jumped in 1979, 2001 and 2007.

"They skyrocket every time some tinpot dictator decides to throw a tantrum." — JD Vance

He closed by turning on the other party: "the Democrats' solution to this problem is to whine and build a few windmills."

How Today's Prices Compare With 2022

Vance's comparison with 2022 holds up in nominal terms. Regular gasoline averaged $4.93 a gallon in June 2022, Energy Information Administration data show. That was the highest monthly average in the agency's records, which go back to 1990. The national average now stands at $4.28 a gallon, according to PolitiKool's gas price tracker.

But the comparison leaves out the past year. The EIA's latest weekly reading, $4.284 on Oct. 19, was $1.265 above the same week in 2025. Prices averaged $2.91 in February 2026. They climbed to $4.48 in May. AAA has said October 2026 is the first October in which the national average has been above $4 a gallon.

Checking Vance's History

The 1979 spike fits his description best. Iranian oil output fell by 4.8 million barrels a day during the revolution that toppled the shah, and crude prices more than doubled between April 1979 and April 1980, according to the Federal Reserve's history of the oil shock. The same account notes that strong global demand also drove that shock.

The other two years fit less neatly. EIA monthly data show gasoline rising from $1.41 in March 2001 to $1.70 in May, then falling below $1.10 by December. In 2007, prices topped $3 in May, eased in late summer, and peaked at $4.06 in July 2008 before collapsing during the financial crisis.

The Iran War and the Midterms

Vance's "tinpot dictator" framing follows months of efforts by the administration to play down the conflict. On Sept. 3, Vance told reporters at the White House, "I wouldn't call it a war." A day later, Trump called it "small potatoes", saying: "I call it a military conflict because it's small potatoes for us."

On Sept. 9, Trump said oil prices would probably not fall until the votes were counted. "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," he told reporters as Brent crude topped $100 a barrel.

Voters have not given the White House much credit on the economy. PolitiKool's polling average puts Trump's approval on the economy at 29.5 percent, with 67.6 percent disapproving. His overall approval stands at 37.6 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

Montana itself is not close at the top of the ticket. Alme leads Democrat Alani Bankhead by 22.8 points in PolitiKool's polling average. The western Montana House race between Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag is a "tighter-than-expected contest," KBZK reported. Nationally, the Senate fight remains a toss-up.

What Happens Next

The vice president's message to undecided voters amounts to a bet that they will blame foreign turmoil, not the administration, for prices they agree are too high. Trump's own timeline puts relief after Election Day. Whether pump prices move before then is the open question.