Jessica Tarlov Says Donald Trump's Red-State Tour Is a GOP 'Fire Drill'

Jessica Tarlov, co-host of the Raging Moderates podcast, said Donald Trump's plan to campaign in solidly Republican states ahead of the midterms shows the GOP is on defense. She called the strategy "a complete fire drill" and argued that even Trump's staunchest allies expect to lose the House.

Tarlov made the remarks on Tuesday's episode with co-host Scott Galloway, 35 days before the November 3 election. Galloway had first raised the idea. "You don't spend the last 30 days defending Texas and Florida if you think you're winning," he said. "It's not a victory. It's a fire drill."

"A hundred percent agree with that," Tarlov replied. "It is a complete fire drill."

Where Donald Trump Is Actually Campaigning

The schedule largely matches the hosts' description. Trump promised to campaign in 35 of the most competitive battleground districts but is opening his October swing with rallies in Durant, Oklahoma, on Thursday and Mobile, Alabama, on Friday, the Associated Press reported. The Republican National Committee said the Durant event would also draw voters from neighboring Texas.

Trump also plans stops in Iowa, Florida, Texas and Alaska, Yahoo News reported, with rallies in more traditional battleground states beginning October 3. Kansas, which Galloway also named, was not among the announced stops.

"The President's ability to engage with and activate low-propensity voters is unmatched," RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre told the AP. "That's why he'll be barnstorming the country to activate the voters we need to win in November."

Several of those states have competitive Senate races. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Representative Ashley Hinson by 1.9 points in PolitiKool's polling average. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 3.1 points in PolitiKool's polling average. In Alaska, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan trails Mary Peltola by 0.9 points in PolitiKool's polling average.

Jessica Tarlov's 2024 Comparison

Tarlov contrasted the current strategy with Trump's 2024 campaign. She recalled questioning his rally at Madison Square Garden and his stops in blue states, then said she "had egg on my face" once the results came in.

She cited her memory of a New York Times results graphic on which "every arrow" pointed toward Republicans, and said the GOP had "expanded the map enormously" with young, Latino and Black voters.

"It is the opposite. What's going on now?" she said. "They're having to go to like the Rotary Club and beg 70-year-old white people to stick with the Republican Party, and that's a very bad place to be in 35 days out."

Mike Johnson's 'Grow the Majority' Claim

Tarlov also went after House Speaker Mike Johnson, who appeared in a clip on the episode discussing the Iran war. She said he was "out there saying that the Republicans are going to expand their majority in the House."

"There is no one that deluded who's saying that," she added. "Even the most pro-Trump or conservative Republicans who think that they've been delivering left, right, and center understand that they're going to lose the House. The question is what's the margin going to be?"

Johnson has made the claim on the record. "We're going to grow the majority," he told Fox News Digital on September 3, adding that he was "very bullish about the outcome on election night."

The ratings point the other way. On Friday, the Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats. It now rates 208 seats as favoring Democrats and 205 as favoring Republicans, with 22 toss-ups, 17 of them held by Republicans. "Republicans would need to win a majority of Toss Up races to hold the House — not impossible, but incredibly difficult," the report said.

Democrats lead by 7.5 points on the generic congressional ballot in PolitiKool's polling average, 47.8 percent to 40.3 percent. Trump's approval stands at 37.6 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

What To Watch Next

Trump's battleground rallies are scheduled to start Saturday. Where he goes, and how often he returns to states he won comfortably in 2024, will show whether Republicans are trying to win new seats or protect the ones they have.

Tarlov framed the question as one of margin rather than control. "The question is what's the margin going to be?" she said.