Ted Cruz Says Abdul El-Sayed Win Would Make AOC the 2028 Nominee

Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas, predicted that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination if Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan's Democratic Senate nominee, wins on Tuesday.

Cruz attached a condition to the prediction, which he made on the Week in Review episode of Verdict with Ted Cruz released Saturday. In the same segment he said he is "bullish" that Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, will win the open seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.

Ted Cruz on AOC and the Michigan Senate Race

"If Abdul El-Sayed is the next senator from Michigan, I believe the Democrat nominee for president in 2028 will be AOC," Cruz said.

His case is about electability. "If Michigan, the quintessential swing state, elects an open communist and Islamist, I think that argument gets blown out of the water."

Those labels are Cruz's own, and so is a mocking nickname about El-Sayed's height that he used earlier in the segment. Cruz has accused El-Sayed of lying to Kristen Welker about Muslim Brotherhood ties, an unproven charge that El-Sayed denies. On NBC's Meet the Press, El-Sayed answered "No" when Welker asked whether he or his family had ties to the group, The National Desk reported. El-Sayed has also asked why it is "even a subject of debate" and said people should not be suspected "simply because they are different from you in how they pray."

Cruz warned Republicans against treating an Ocasio-Cortez nomination as a gift. "Listen, we are such a divided country that if you think it is impossible for AOC to win the general, you have not been paying attention," he said.

He pointed to Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist whom Ocasio-Cortez backed, who won the New York City mayor's race in November 2025 by defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

Michigan Senate Polls: How Close Is the Race?

Cruz called Michigan "our single best pickup opportunity in the country" and said an El-Sayed win "will move the Democrat Conference significantly to the left." He described the race as close: "This race is also, if not tied, it's either plus one or two or minus one or two."

The polling puts it further apart than that. El-Sayed leads Rogers 49.1 percent to 44.5 percent, a 4.6-point margin, in PolitiKool's polling average for the Michigan Senate race. Even so, he said, "I think we're gonna win in Michigan."

Michigan as a Swing State

Cruz's claim that Michigan "voted for Donald Trump, but right on the edge" matches the record. Trump won the state in 2024 with 49.7 percent to Kamala Harris' 48.3 percent, certified results show.

The state has gone with the winner in each of the past three presidential races: Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024.

Where AOC Stands in 2028 Democratic Primary Polling

For now, Ocasio-Cortez is not the front-runner. She is fourth with 9.5 percent in PolitiKool's polling average of the 2028 Democratic field. Harris leads at 27.2 percent, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 15.5 percent and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10.7 percent.

On Cruz's reasoning, a Michigan result could change that order. A progressive win in a state Trump carried two years ago would weaken the electability argument against Ocasio-Cortez that Cruz said is the knock against her in the Democratic primary.

What Happens Next

Michigan votes on Tuesday. Cruz called Michigan and Texas, where Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton, "the two most important Senate races in the entire country." Talarico leads by 4.9 points in PolitiKool's Texas Senate average.

If El-Sayed wins, Cruz will have a test of his prediction long before the 2028 primaries begin. If Rogers wins, the race Cruz sees as his party's best pickup chance will have gone the way he expects.