Megyn Kelly Says GOP Senate Hold Would Mean 'the End of Polling'

Megyn Kelly told listeners on Monday that if Republicans hold the Senate on Election Day, it will be a polling failure big enough to finish off the industry, as final surveys showed Democrats leading in nearly every race that will decide control of the chamber.

The conservative host was reading from the last round of New York Times/Siena polls, released Sunday, which put Democrats ahead in Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio and Kansas, and narrowly ahead in Alaska and Iowa. Her verdict was a forecast, not a call, and the race-by-race numbers show more room for a surprise than her summary did.

"If they don't do poorly and they actually managed to hold on to control of the Senate or keep it tight, it's going to be a massive polling failure. It will be the end of polling," Kelly said on The Megyn Kelly Show.

Megyn Kelly on Why Republicans Could Lose

Kelly, who said she will vote Republican "up and down the line" in Connecticut, opened the show by calling the trend in the final polls terrible for the GOP. She said the bigger question would be what a loss meant.

"What are the voters trying to tell Republicans? What did they do or not do that people are pissed off about and looking to punish them for?" she asked.

Later in the episode she described the polls as "absolutely dreadful for Republicans," saying the pattern was "basically Dems plus four five up to seven in virtually every single race," with Alaska and perhaps Iowa as the exceptions. That is her own rough summary. In the Times/Siena numbers, Democratic leads ran from 5 to 11 points in the five states she went through. Alaska and Iowa were the closest races, at 2 points and 1 point.

Final NYT/Siena Senate Polls, Race by Race

Kelly's figures match the Siena release. "Texas has Tallarico up seven over Paxton," she said: Democrat James Talarico at 50 percent to Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton's 43 percent. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led former Representative Mike Rogers 53 percent to 42 percent. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson led Senator Susan Collins 51 percent to 45 percent. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown led Senator Jon Husted 49 percent to 44 percent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton led Senator Roger Marshall 49 percent to 44 percent.

The Times/Siena leads are larger than PolitiKool's averages in all five states:

The Michigan gap is the widest. One poll has El-Sayed ahead by 11 points. Across all surveys, PolitiKool's average has him ahead by less than 5, in a race upended over the weekend when Representative Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers. Overall, PolitiKool's polling average rates control of the Senate a toss-up.

Which Democratic Leads Are Within the Margin of Error

A poll's reported margin of error applies to each candidate's share. According to Pew Research Center, the error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice as large.

By that measure, only Michigan is clearly outside the error. El-Sayed's 11-point lead compares with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points. Talarico's 7-point lead in Texas, where the margin is 3.4 points, sits right at the edge. The leads in Maine (6 points, margin 4.7), Ohio (5 points, margin 4.4) and Kansas (5 points, margin 4.4) are all within it.

Every lead in PolitiKool's averages for those five races is under 6 points.

Susan Collins and the 2020 Polling Miss

Kelly made one exception to her own gloom. Six years ago Collins trailed in the polls before Election Day and won anyway, and Kelly said, "Do not count Susan Collins out."

In 2020, Emerson College's final public poll had Democrat Sara Gideon ahead by 6 points. Collins won by about 8, the Bangor Daily News reported. That was one of the larger Senate polling misses of that cycle. Her 6-point deficit in this year's final Times/Siena poll is about the same size.

The broader environment favors Democrats. Republicans trail by 8.5 points in PolitiKool's generic ballot average, and Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 37.7 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

What to Watch Tonight

Polls close across the country Tuesday evening. Kelly said she would cover the results live from 7 p.m. The races to watch first are the ones where the polling leads are smallest, in Maine, Ohio and Kansas. Those results will show whether Kelly's test of the polling industry ever comes into play.