Jessica Tarlov Laments Democrats Aren't Gaining as Donald Trump's Approval Sinks

Jessica Tarlov, the Fox News co-host and Democratic strategist, said on Monday that she is frustrated with her party's leaders for failing to turn Donald Trump's slide into gains of their own. She also said she is nervous about two Senate seats Democrats are counting on.

She made the remarks on a live episode of Raging Moderates, the podcast she co-hosts with Scott Galloway, in an interview with Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark. The midterm elections are on November 3, 22 days from the taping.

Tarlov told Longwell she agreed with her that Democrats have a "generational opportunity" and said she "remain[s] frustrated at the leadership's inability to seize that moment because the popularity of the Democratic Party is not ticking up as Donald Trump's unpopularity ticks up as well or down."

Trump Approval vs. Democratic Party Favorability

The "Bush line" is Tarlov's own loose benchmark. The closest comparison is George W. Bush's second midterm. Gallup found his approval at 38 percent in a survey taken November 2 to 5, 2006, days before the midterm elections.

Trump sits just below that mark. PolitiKool's polling average puts his approval at 37.7 percent, with 59.4 percent disapproving. The Democratic Party is barely higher: PolitiKool's polling average shows 40 percent of Americans view it favorably and 56.6 percent unfavorably.

But Democrats still poll ahead of the alternative. The Republican Party's favorability is 37.3 percent in PolitiKool's polling average, and Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 48 percent to 40.2 percent.

Longwell agreed that Trump is "below the Bush line." She argued that individual candidates are outrunning their party's brand. Citing a VoteHub chart, she said voters who call the Democratic Party too far left rate candidates such as North Carolina's Roy Cooper far lower on that measure, and that "a lot of them are beating the too far left moniker by simply not running as somebody who is too far left."

She was also critical of the party, saying, "I am frustrated with the lack of offense from the Democratic leadership." But she added: "with the exception of Maine... they did a pretty good job on candidate recruitment."

Jessica Tarlov's Worries in New Hampshire and Maine

Tarlov said Democrats risk picking up a red state while losing ground at home. She called Representative Chris Pappas "the right candidate" for New Hampshire's Senate seat, but warned: "the Sununu brand and the Sununu force is major." Pappas's opponent is former Senator John E. Sununu.

"I feel like we are sleeping on being the correct level of concerned about New Hampshire," she said.

The polls give Pappas a cushion. A University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released in September found Pappas leading Sununu 50 percent to 42 percent, a reversal from a month earlier, when Sununu led by two points. PolitiKool's polling average has Pappas ahead by 7.3 points.

In Maine she was more pessimistic. Tarlov said there were "more than 50% odds, to my mind, that we're not going to pick off Maine, which was the number one target and winnable seat." That is her own view, not a forecast.

She said Republican Senator Susan Collins "does not present as well as she did in 2020" but is "still leading in polling margin of error." Recent polls disagree on who is ahead. A Marist poll taken October 1 to 4 found Democrat Troy Jackson ahead 51 percent to 47 percent among registered voters. In the same survey, 57 percent said they expected Collins to win anyway. PolitiKool's polling average has Jackson up 2.6 points.

Tarlov's caution comes from history. "But she was trailing Sara Gideon the whole time in 2020 and won by eight," she said. Collins won reelection after Gideon conceded.

What Comes Next

Longwell joked about the anxiety: "Listen, you wouldn't be a Democrat if you weren't wetting the bed over the polls." She then laid out her theory of the race.

Tarlov added Minnesota to her list of worries. "I do think that we're sleeping on the level of concern that we should have," she said.

Whether pollsters are again understating Republicans, as they did in Maine six years ago, or overstating them, as former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer argues, will not be known until the votes are counted.