Matt Walsh Cites Iran War and Gas Prices Behind Democrats' Senate Poll Leads

Conservative commentator Matt Walsh said Monday that the war in Iran and high gas prices are the two main reasons Democratic candidates he called "totally unserious" now lead in polls across several key 2026 races. The admission came from one of the right's most combative voices, three weeks before the midterms.

Walsh, host of The Matt Walsh Show on The Daily Wire, spent most of the episode attacking Texas Senate candidate James Talarico, Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic nominee for governor. Near the end, he asked why candidates he considers unfit are winning.

"These people are, in some ways, totally unserious clowns in that a real country where things are going reasonably well would never consider them or at least they wouldn't be viable options," Walsh said. "But the polls show that they're probably going to win."

Matt Walsh Points to the Iran War and Gas Prices

"And if we're being honest, we can identify a number of reasons. Two primary ones jump out," Walsh continued, naming "the war in Iran, which was supposedly going to spark an internal revolution that never took place and high gas prices, which have made everything from transportation to the cost of groceries increase substantially in cost."

Walsh never named President Donald Trump and stopped short of faulting the decision to go to war. But the hope of a revolution he described was the administration's own. The war began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, and Trump told Iranians in a video that day, "Now, you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let's see how you respond," urging them to take over their government, The Christian Science Monitor reported. The Islamic Republic is still in power.

Walsh said the two factors mean "these very unserious candidates have to be taken seriously because some of them will soon be in the United States Senate."

What the Gas Price and Inflation Data Show

The pump numbers back Walsh up. The national average for regular gasoline was $2.937 a gallon in the week before the strikes, according to Energy Information Administration weekly data. It passed $4 in April, peaked at $4.50 in May and stood at $4.354 last Monday. PolitiKool's gas price tracker puts the national average at $4.35.

His claim about groceries is weaker. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' August Consumer Price Index found the gasoline index up 27.4 percent from a year earlier and the energy index up 16.3 percent. Airline fares rose 23.4 percent. But food-at-home prices rose only 2.2 percent, below the 3.4 percent headline inflation rate, and the BLS detailed table shows transportation services up 2.4 percent. The September report is due Wednesday.

Voters have noticed. Just 29.7 percent approve of Trump's handling of the economy, according to PolitiKool's polling average, and his overall approval stands at 37.7 percent in PolitiKool's polling average. An AP-NORC poll released Oct. 1 found 69 percent of U.S. adults, or roughly 70 percent, saying the war in Iran has not been worth fighting and 71 percent disapproving of Trump's handling of Iran, Al Jazeera reported.

Are Talarico, El-Sayed and Benson 'Favored to Win'?

Walsh called Talarico, a Democratic state representative, "favored to become the first Democrat senator from Texas in nearly four decades" if the polls are right. Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, 47.2 percent to 43.7 percent in PolitiKool's polling average, a lead that is real but narrow. Paxton's struggles have drawn criticism from other conservative hosts.

In Michigan, Walsh said El-Sayed is "favored to win the Senate race." The Democrat leads former Republican Representative Mike Rogers 48.7 percent to 45.3 percent in PolitiKool's polling average, within the range of an ordinary polling miss.

Benson is on firmer ground. Walsh said that if the polls are accurate, she "is about to be the governor of the state." She leads Republican Representative John James 49.8 percent to 42.4 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

Nationally, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 48 percent to 40.2 percent in PolitiKool's polling average.

What Happens Next

Walsh did not suggest that Republicans change course on Iran. He framed the midterms as a fight against the left, ending the episode with a promotion for his documentary on the Russian Revolution, which premieres Friday.

The war's political costs are already coming up elsewhere in conservative media, as hosts on both sides weigh whether an Iran "October surprise" could still move voters. With gas still above $4 and early voting about to begin in Texas, it is not yet clear whether the two forces Walsh named will hold until Election Day.