Donald Trump's Longtime Pollster Puts Republicans Down 5 on Generic Ballot

John McLaughlin, Donald Trump's longtime pollster, said Monday that his firm had Republicans trailing Democrats by five points on the generic congressional ballot at the end of September. He called the midterm elections, 22 days away, "a toss up race," but said Republicans will "keep the Senate" and have "a good shot" in the House if Trump's voters turn out.

McLaughlin made the remarks on The Sean Hannity Show. Mark Simone, a WOR radio host in New York, was filling in for Hannity. The figures McLaughlin attributed to his own polls were not released with the interview.

"Even though we had at the end of September we had the Republicans down five in the generic ballot for Congress. And that's close," McLaughlin said.

McLaughlin Names Six Senate Toss-Ups in Trump States

When Simone asked whether the race was too close to call, McLaughlin answered, "Oh, absolutely," and said "it's a toss up race." He said Republicans have a better shot at holding the Senate than the House, and he named the Senate seats he considers pure toss-ups.

"You look at the pure toss ups Alaska Iowa Kansas Michigan Ohio Texas," he said.

Trump carried all six of those states in 2024. Five of the seats are held by Republicans. Michigan's is an open Democratic seat. McLaughlin added that "there's about 17 that are pure toss ups" among House races.

Public polling is less kind to the GOP. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 7.8 points in PolitiKool's polling average. That is wider than McLaughlin's five. Trump's approval rating stands at 37.7 percent, with 59.4 percent disapproving, in PolitiKool's polling average, well short of "about even."

Democrats also lead in all six Senate races McLaughlin listed in PolitiKool's polling averages. Mary Peltola leads Senator Dan Sullivan by 4.6 points in Alaska. Sherrod Brown leads Senator Jon Husted by 4.2 points in Ohio. James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by 3.5 points in Texas. Abdul El-Sayed is up 3.4 in Michigan. The leads are 2 points in Kansas and 1.4 points in Iowa. Most of those margins are within normal polling error, which is consistent with McLaughlin's toss-up label.

McLaughlin Says Public Polls Miss Trump Voters

McLaughlin argued that public surveys undercount Republicans. Speaking about Texas, he said "it looks like they're ... not polling as many Republicans or as many Trump voters as they should." He said undecided voters lean his way: "Most of them will tell you they voted for Trump in 2024."

The record is mixed. A task force of the American Association for Public Opinion Research found that 2024 "was a good year for public polling" after "larger-than-typical errors in 2016 and 2020." Midterms are a different test, and a former Obama adviser has argued that this year's polls could again overstate Republicans.

McLaughlin's own record has been questioned too. In 2014, his firm released a poll showing then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor ahead of his primary challenger by 34 points. Cantor lost by 12, Roll Call reported.

Simone was harsher about public polls. "All the polls you read publicly, they're all fake, rigged, cheap, crummy polls," he said before the interview.

Trump Rallies and the GOP Ground Game

Simone called collecting voter data "one of the purposes of these rallies," and McLaughlin spoke of rally announcements yielding emails and cell numbers. After a caller described a Trump rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, Simone said ticket requests feed "what you call the ground game," adding, "They make sure they contact you before the vote, they make sure you get out to vote."

McLaughlin said security concerns during the war with Iran have kept Trump out of large arenas. Even so, he said, announcing a stop means "a million people will send you emails and send you their cell phone numbers and then you can communicate with them directly."

Turnout, he argued, will decide the outcome. "So the 77 million Trump voters, if they come back out, the Republicans will do fine. We'll keep the Senate. We have a good shot to keep in the House," McLaughlin said.

What to Watch Next

McLaughlin also said Republicans gain ground when the choice is framed as "a free market capitalist or a Democrat who's a big government socialist." On that question, "the Republican goes ahead forty five forty one." But by his own figures, that edge has shrunk from 13 points in July to within about four points in September.

On Hannity's own show last week, the Fox News host said he lacks "confidence" in a Republican midterm win. Election Day is Nov. 3.