Ted Cruz Calls Texas Senate Race a 'Dead Heat' as Early Voting Gets Underway

Senator Ted Cruz told listeners of his Verdict podcast on Friday that the Senate race in his home state is tied, calling it one of eight to 10 contests that will decide whether Republicans keep their majority.

"Texas is a tie right now. It is a dead heat. If you're in Texas, come out and vote," Cruz, a Texas Republican, said on the episode, which he co-hosts with Ben Ferguson. He said he plans four or five events with Ken Paxton, the state's Republican attorney general, who faces Democrat James Talarico.

Cruz's remarks were a frank, ranked list of his own party's weak spots from a sitting senator. They were also a turnout pitch. "This is really a turnout election," he said.

Ted Cruz Ranks the GOP's Most Vulnerable Senate Seats

Cruz said the close races are "somewhere between plus three and minus three"—his own description—and said: "Now, we could have a really good night, a really bad night, or somewhere in between."

He called North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring, "the single most vulnerable Republican seat we have right now." Of the seats Republicans currently hold, he said, "North Carolina has the roughest poll numbers." He described former Governor Roy Cooper as "a strong candidate" and noted that Republican Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, "has not been elected statewide."

After North Carolina, Cruz named Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, Kansas and Iowa. Ohio, where Republican Senator Jon Husted faces former Senator Sherrod Brown, "could go either way," he said. Maine "is a very blue state and they do not like Donald Trump." In Kansas, he said, "There are a lot of farmers who are unhappy. That's neck and neck." On Iowa: "Ashley Hinson is a great candidate, but that is a close race."

In Alaska, Cruz blamed the state's ranked-choice voting system. He also pointed to a second candidate named Dan Sullivan on the ballot, whom he accused Democrats of recruiting to draw votes away from the incumbent.

How Ted Cruz's Ranking Compares With the Polls

On North Carolina, the polling backs Cruz up and then some. PolitiKool's polling average has Cooper at 52.1 percent and Whatley at 41.1 percent. That 11-point gap is far outside the range Cruz described. The Cook Political Report moved the race to Likely Democratic on September 23 and shifted Kansas to Toss-up on October 6, according to 270toWin's tracking of Cook's ratings.

On Texas, Cruz is more upbeat than the average. PolitiKool's polling average has Talarico at 48 percent and Paxton at 43.6 percent, a 4.4-point lead. A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll of 2,000 likely voters, taken October 10–14, had a closer race: Talarico 48 percent, Paxton 46 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 points.

Democrats also lead in every other Republican-held seat on his list. The PolitiKool averages put Mary Peltola ahead by 3.4 points in Alaska, Brown by 3.2 in Ohio, Troy Jackson by 1.9 in Maine, Adam Hamilton by 1.8 in Kansas and Josh Turek by 0.5 in Iowa.

Two Republican seats he left off his list are just as close. Independent Dan Osborn leads Senator Pete Ricketts by 0.1 points in Nebraska, and Todd Achilles leads Senator Jim Risch by 0.2 in Idaho.

Ted Cruz's Senate Pickup List

Cruz named Michigan as the best Republican pickup chance. "We've got a real shot at winning Michigan. Now we might lose," he said. PolitiKool's polling average has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers, 48 percent to 45.3 percent.

New Hampshire was second on his list, and there Democrat Chris Pappas leads John E. Sununu by 7 points in PolitiKool's polling average. In Minnesota, Cruz said polling shows Republican Michele Tafoya "down maybe one or two points." PolitiKool's polling average has her 3.8 points behind Democrat Peggy Flanagan. He also said Trump lost Minnesota "by one point." (Trump lost the state by about 4 points in 2024 and by about 1.5 points in 2016.)

Georgia came last. "The polling in Georgia is looking rough," Cruz said, and he called it "clearly number four." Senator Jon Ossoff leads Republican Mike Collins by 8.6 points in PolitiKool's polling average.

What Happens Next

Cruz said that "if we lose a couple and win a couple, that'd be great. That would keep us the majority." On Monday, he had warned Republicans could wake up in January with 45 seats.

The national backdrop is a hard one for his party. Trump's approval stands at 37.5 percent in PolitiKool's polling average, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8.5 points in PolitiKool's average.

Trump is due to hold rallies in Lubbock and Corpus Christi before Election Day. Whether Texas is really the tie Cruz describes will come down to who turns out.